Australia's housing crisis is set to deepen under a fossil-fuelled future, with climate change exacerbating affordability issues and pushing up rents, according to new research. The University of Sydney study, published in Cities, models the housing market's response to different climate scenarios, revealing stark disparities in the impact on vulnerable households.
The findings are alarming: under a high-emissions future, homelessness could quadruple by 2036, as homes become more expensive and rents rise relative to incomes. This is particularly concerning given Australia's commitment to the Paris Agreement and its emissions reduction targets. Associate Prof Nader Naderpajouh highlights the unequal impact of global heating on housing, especially affecting renters and those experiencing homelessness.
The study's lead author, Peyman Habibi-Moshfegh, emphasizes the need for fairer housing policies that consider climate change. He argues that any new policies must undergo climate-change simulations to prevent further inequality. Economist Nicki Hutley agrees, advocating for climate change to be at the forefront of housing policy, including emissions reduction and resilience measures.
The federal government's recent climate risk assessment underscores the vulnerability of Australian homes, with 10% of residential properties in very high-risk areas by 2030. This assessment also highlights the worsening of longstanding inequalities due to the climate crisis. As the housing market faces increasing pressure, the need for drastic increases in social housing and tailored support for low-income renters becomes imperative.
In conclusion, the research underscores the urgent need for a comprehensive approach to housing policy that addresses the impacts of climate change. By prioritizing emissions reduction, resilience, and equitable support for vulnerable households, Australia can strive towards a more sustainable and inclusive housing future.
